June 15th, 2023 briefly caught a S&P500 one-year high index price at 3,448.

We are 100 points below that high now.

In the Global Week Ahead?

Stock traders get to look into:

• The state of Mainland China's manufacturing sector, as well as see
• The Federal Reserve's favored measure of inflation (PCE), while
• The world's central bankers gather in Portugal for an annual forum

Over the last week, one central bank after another has been making it very clear. The only way for policy rates now is up, as inflation tightens its grip on the global economy.

Next are Reuters’ five world market themes, reordered for equity traders—

(1) Halfway Through 2023, Last Year’s Losers Are This Year’s Winners

What a year. It started with a burst of optimism over China's post-COVID recovery, greater resilience in the global economy and relief that inflation could have peaked.

Since then, a U.S. banking crisis, the collapse of Credit Suisse, and a painful reckoning over the rate outlook has made the last six months feel like a long time in markets.

The hype around AI has made Big Tech the best performing asset of 2023, with a gain of +75%. At the end of H2 2022, that sector was showing a -10% loss.

But it's been pretty unkind to the rest of the market, other than specific pockets such as Japanese equities and European luxury stocks.

Surprisingly, considering the turmoil in the sector, the only asset to even come close to Big Tech's returns is bitcoin, with a gain of +73% compared with a -20% loss in H2 2022.

Halfway through 2023 and last year's zeros appear to be turning into this year's heroes.

(2) The Fed Gets a New PCE Inflation Measure

The U.S. economy has proved to be surprisingly resilient in the first half of this year, despite a barrage of interest rate hikes, but just how resilient will become clearer with a fresh batch of data due in the coming week.

The latest Consumer Confidence report arrives on Tuesday after the measure slipped to a six-month low in May. June's index is expected to tick higher.

A window into the housing market also comes on Tuesday with the Case-Shiller national home price index. The index climbed 0.4% in March after adjusting for seasonal fluctuations.

The week ends with the May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Friday, a key inflation gauge. In the 12 months through April, the PCE price index increased +4.4%.

The Federal Reserve tracks the PCE price indexes for its +2% inflation target, and the data will feed into the central bank's next rate decision in July after it left rates unchanged at its June meeting.

(3) Can Mainland China Turn Growth Matters Around?

China's June factory activity data takes center stage on Friday, though if anything, the figures will add to the narrative of a faltering recovery.

Beijing seems to be in no hurry to unleash massive stimulus so far, and is instead drip-feeding it, first by cutting medium-term loan rates, then by lowering its key lending benchmarks.

Bad news could be taken as a positive, if traders see it as a way of pushing authorities to offer more support to the economy — as long as it eventually arrives.

But if hopes are running high, patience is wearing thin. Most economists have cut their growth forecasts as the prospect of GDP adding more than 6% fades away.

(4) What About the European Central Bank (ECB)?

Looking to quiz the world's leading central bank bosses? Make your way to the foothills of Portugal's Sintra mountains from Monday through Wednesday.

The agenda is, of course: inflation, inflation, inflation.

All eyes will be on European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde for clues on what rates-setters for the Eurozone's 20 economies will do next, after she sounded more hawkish than expected at the most recent policy meeting.

The bank's governors have been vying for the limelight since, to drive home the message that the fight against inflation is far from over. Even Greek governor Yannis Stournaras, a dove, has said he can't rule anything out.

Traders have jacked up their bets on how much further the ECB will go. They are betting on a July increase and expect another move by October that would bring rates to 4%.

(5) Sweden’s Central Bank, the Riksbank, meets on June 28th

Sweden's central bank, which meets on June 28th, is dealing with too-high inflation exacerbated by a weakened currency, making an interest rate rise and continued hawkishness seem the best course of action.

But the Riksbank has another big problem on its hands, as higher rates and falling property values squeeze Sweden's indebted real estate market. Sweden's banks are heavily exposed to the property sector too.

The currency, rates and property are, therefore, in a potential doom loop, with the Swedish crown now around its weakest against the euro on record because of concerns about the effect of real estate woes on the economy.

Analysts are looking at what options the Swedish central bank has, beyond rate rises, to strengthen the crown. Many expect initial attempts to talk the currency higher — “jawboning," in central bank jargon — before considering whether direct intervention is needed.

Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks

Two major global Into Tech stocks, and one major global Building Materials stock, made it onto our Zacks #1 list this week.

(1) ServiceNow (NOW Quick QuoteNOW - Free Report) : This Computer-IT Services company’s stock prices at $549, with for a current market cap of $112B.

I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of D.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

ServiceNow Inc. provides cloud computing services that automate digital workflows to accelerate enterprise IT operations.

The company's Now Platform enables enterprises to enhance productivity by streamlining system processes.

By utilizing its product portfolio, customers can reduce the manual time taken by complex processes and consequently optimize total cost of ownership.

Its solutions address the needs of many departments within an enterprise, including IT, HR, facilities, field service, marketing, customer service, security, legal & finance.

The company has 3 product suites for IT management and operations:

• IT Service Management
• IT Operations Management and
• IT Business Management solutions

Non-IT products include Customer Service, HR and Security Operations. Its end-markets include financial services, consumer products, IT services, health care, government, education and technology.

ServiceNow derives revenues from two sources: subscriptions and professional services & others.

(2) Palo Alto Networks (PANW Quick QuotePANW - Free Report) : This is a $249 stock, central to the Internet Software Security industry.

This company’s stock currently has a market cap of $76.2B.

I see a Zacks Value score of F, a Zacks Growth score of A, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Palo Alto Networks offers network security solutions to enterprises, service providers and government entities worldwide.

The company's next generation firewall products deliver natively integrated application, user, and content visibility and control through its operating system, hardware and software architecture.

It serves the enterprise network security market, which includes

• Firewall
• Unified Threat Management
• Web Gateway
• Intrusion Detection and Prevention and
• Virtual Private Network technologies

Through its products and subscription services, Palo Alto provides integrated protection against dynamic security threats while simplifying the IT security infrastructure.

Its solutions incorporate application-specific integrated circuits, hardware architecture, operating system, and associated security and networking functions.

The company's network security gateways protect customer data, reduce security complexities and lower total cost of ownership.

(3) Vinci SA (VCISY Quick QuoteVCISY - Free Report) : This is a $29 stock found in the Building Products-Heavy Construction industry.

This company’s stock has a market cap of $68.9B.

I see a Zacks Value score of B, a Zacks Growth score of C, and a Zacks Momentum score of A.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Vinci SA is engaged in the construction of buildings and civil structures.

The company operates under five major segments, Concessions, Energy, Road works, Construction and real estate.
 

• Under Concessions, the Group is involved in designing, structuring, engineering and financing to build and operate transport infrastructure such as motorways, bridges, car parks and airports.
• Under Energy, the Group offers engineering, systems integration, installation and maintenance for industries and third-party vendors.
• Under Road Works, the Group builds, renovates and maintains road and motorways. Under Construction, the Group is involved in civil engineering and hydraulic engineering.
• Under Real Estate, the Group is involved in real estate promotion and development of housing lots, commercial complexes and hotels.

The Group operates mainly in Europe, North America and the United Kingdom.

Key Global Macro

Lots of interest this week!

I would focus on the U.S. core PCE rate this week. The Fed surely will.

On Monday, Germany’s IFO Business Climate index for June was expected to be 90.7 (prior was revised slightly downward to 91.5) but came in only 88.5.

On Tuesday, U.S. Durable Goods Orders for May come out (consensus has 0% m/m). The prior reading was +1.1% m/m.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (for 20 cities) comes out for April (consensus has -1.9% m/m). The prior reading was -1.1% m/m.

New U.S. home sales for May come out (consensus has 670K. The prior month shows 683K.

On Wednesday, we get U.S. Bank Stress Test info.

On Thursday, there is an EU leader’s summit.

Initial U.S. jobless claims come out. The prior week was 2764K, with a 4-wk average at 256K.

On Friday, Mainland China’s NBS manufacturing PMI for June should be 49.5, after printing 48.8 in May.

U.S. personal income, personal spending, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index come out for May.

The core U.S. PCE should be up +5.0% y/y through May, after showing +5.0% in April.

Conclusion

Let’s wrap up with a quick look at Zacks Q2 S&P500 earnings outlook.

Here are Zacks Research Director Sheraz Mian’s four key Q2 earnings points:

(1) 2023 Q2 earnings for the S&P 500 index are expected to decline -9.4% from the same period last year on -0.6% lower revenues.

Profit margin declines for the 6th consecutive quarter drive the earnings drop.

(2) The -9.4% decline in Q2 earnings would follow the -3.5% decline in 2023 Q1 and -5.4% drop in 2022 Q4.

In other words, Q2-2023 is expected to be 3rd consecutive quarter of earnings declines.

(3) Earnings estimates for Q2 have dropped since the quarter got underway. But the magnitude of cuts to earnings estimates is notably below what we saw in other recent comparable periods.

The -9.4% earnings drop in Q2 today is down from -7.2% at the start of the period.

(4) Since the start of 2023 Q2, full-year 2023 earnings estimates have only modestly come down.

Estimates have increased for 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with Construction, Industrials, Autos, Retail, and Tech enjoying favorable estimate revisions.

Estimates have come down for the Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Basic Materials, Transportation, Conglomerates, and Aerospace sectors.

Happy trading and investing!

Warm Regards,

John Blank
Zacks Chief Equity Strategist and Economist